Statistics Canada’s September production forecast points to a steady Canadian corn outlook compared with August, while the soybean estimate has increased slightly.
According to Wednesday’s Statistics Canada model-based production estimates, 2025 national corn production will amount to 15.5 million tonnes, down marginally from the federal agency’s August forecast of 15.552 million but still 1% larger than last year’s 15.402 million. At 165.3 bu/acre, the average national corn yield is down slightly from 165.9 in August and below 168.1 in 2024.
Nationwide soybean production is pegged at 7.133 million tonnes, slightly above the August forecast of 7.016 million but 5.7% below last year’s 7.563 million. Yields are now estimated at 45.7 bu/acre, versus 45 in August and 49.1 in 2024.
Ontario’s corn crop remains unchanged from August at 9.905 million tonnes, a 2.9% gain from last year’s 9.628 million and the second largest on record. Expanded harvested area (+3.4% to 2.2 million acres) is offsetting a slight dip in yields, at 179.1 bu/acre compared to 180 bu in 2024.
Soybean production in the province is projected at 3.972 million tonnes, virtually steady with August but down 8.8% from 4.357 million a year ago. Harvested area is expected to contract by 7% to 2.9 million acres, while yields are pegged at 50.8 bu/acre, down 0.1 bu from September and slightly below last year’s 51.8.
Manitoba corn production is also unchanged from August at 1.948 million tonnes. That represents a 10.3% gain from 2024, driven by a 19.6% expansion in harvested area to nearly 600,000 acres. Yields, however, are expected to fall sharply to 128.6 bu/acre from 139.4 last year, reflecting the impact of dry weather.
Manitoba soybean production has been revised higher since August, now projected at 1.745 million tonnes compared to 1.617 million previously. That still represents only a 2.9% increase from 2024, as higher harvested area (+15.6% to 1.6 million acres) is mostly offset by weaker yields. At 39.2 bu/acre, yields are down 10.9% from last year’s 44 but better than the August projection of 36.1.
In Quebec, corn output is pegged at 3.412 million tonnes, down slightly from the August forecast of 3.463 million and 5.4% below 2024’s 3.607 million. Both area and yields are lower year over year, with acreage slipping 3% to 850,000 and yields falling 2.5% to 158.1 bu/acre.
Quebec soybean production is forecast at 1.279 million tonnes, a small decline from the August estimate of 1.301 million and 7.8% below 2024’s 1.387 million. Harvested area is up 4.6% year over year, but the average yield is pegged 43.7 bu/acre, down from 44.5 bu in August and compared to 49.6 last year.
